M.E. Liu, Y. Qiu, G.C. Iyer, A.A. Fawcett, B. Yarlagadda, S. Durga
Pacific Northwest National Lab,
United States
Keywords: graphite, critical minerals, GCAM, muti-sector dynamics modeling, supply chain security
Summary:
The graphite market has increased dramatically over the last decade, with demand mainly driven by growth in Li-ion battery production. Graphite is used as the anode material for batteries as well as in the electrode in electric arc furnaces (EAF) for steel production, and in both cases has little competition from other materials due to its excellent electrical properties and chemical inertness. There are generally two sources from which battery-grade graphite is made today: naturally mined graphite from graphite concentrate and synthetically produced graphite from petroleum coke. Most of all global natural and synthetic graphite production is centralized in China, and the United States does not produce any natural graphite domestically. Nearly all the U.S. supply of battery grade synthetic graphite is imported from China. This has led to concerns of supply chain disruption. While the United States does not produce its own battery-grade synthetic graphite, it does produce significant amounts of synthetic graphite feedstock: petroleum coke. Currently, most of that petroleum coke is too high in sulfur and other impurities to economically be made into graphite, but research is ongoing into unconventional graphite production pathways, including biochar and methane pyrolysis. Meanwhile, the energy landscape continues to change and as alternative energy technologies grow market share the demand for traditional fuels will decrease, and the supply of petroleum coke for synthetic graphite will likely decrease with them. Multisector modeling is important to better understand supply chain impacts, deployment of technologies that depend on graphite, and feedback loops from reduction in traditional fuels demand. The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) is a multisector dynamic model that currently models the demand for graphite in the power and transportation sectors and its evolution over time. The demand for any mineral/material within GCAM is driven by technology deployment - which in turn is based on economic competition across multiple fuels (e.g. fossils, nuclear, renewables, etc.), technologies within fuel categories (e.g. PV, CSP under solar), and technology subtypes within technology categories (e.g. CdTe and a-Si PV technologies). Of relevance to graphite demands, GCAM includes representations for a wide range of battery chemistries – in both the power and transportation sectors along with the economic competition across them and across other power generation and transportation technologies. We are developing capabilities within GCAM that will allow us to model the economic competition between synthetic and natural graphite in different end use demand sectors, study the role of synthetic graphite produced in the United States in ameliorating supply chain vulnerabilities, and explore the viability of unconventional feedstocks (e.g. biochar , methane) for synthetic graphite production. Key results will include future projections of regional natural and synthetic graphite production, total graphite demand, and technology deployments in end use sectors. This presentation will highlight results from initial scenarios with alternative assumptions around: i.) synthetic graphite production costs and efficiencies, ii.) battery costs and performance, iii.) material intensities, and iv.) battery technology policy .